Tools — DCF Sensitivity Calculator
What is this business actually worth?
Three-scenario discounted-cash-flow model. You supply the free cash flow, your view on growth, a discount rate, and the share count — we compute the present-value math for a Bear, Base, and Bull case. No opinions, just the framework.
Inputs
All dollar values in millions. Per-share output is in dollars per share.
5-year FCF growth — by scenario
Intrinsic value per share
Sum of discounted explicit-period FCFs plus discounted terminal value, less net debt, divided by shares.
Bear — 2.0% growth
$133.78
EV $13.38B · Equity $13.38B · Terminal 70% of EV
Base — 5.0% growth
$151.89
EV $15.19B · Equity $15.19B · Terminal 71% of EV
Bull — 8.0% growth
$172.02
EV $17.20B · Equity $17.20B · Terminal 72% of EV
Spread (Bull − Bear): $38.24 per share — that’s the cost of being wrong on the growth rate.
Scenario breakdown
How each scenario’s per-share value is built.
| Scenario | Growth | PV of FCFs | PV of TV | EV | Equity | Terminal % | Per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | $4.01B | $9.37B | $13.38B | $13.38B | 70% | $133.78 |
| Base | 5.0% | $4.36B | $10.83B | $15.19B | $15.19B | 71% | $151.89 |
| Bull | 8.0% | $4.73B | $12.47B | $17.20B | $17.20B | 72% | $172.02 |
Terminal % is the share of total enterprise value coming from the terminal-value tail. When that gets above ~75%, the model is mostly about your terminal-growth assumption rather than the explicit-period cash flows.
How to read the output
- Per-share intrinsic value is the answer the model gives for each scenario. Compare to the current market price to gauge margin of safety.
- Spread (Bull − Bear) is the dispersion your growth assumption alone creates. Wide spread = high-uncertainty business; you want a deeper discount.
- Terminal % is the share of value coming from the perpetuity tail. Above ~75% means small changes in the terminal growth rate dominate the answer.
- The model is structurally simple by design. We’d rather have you experiment with the inputs than hide the math behind a black box.
What this tool isn’t
It’s not personalized advice. It doesn’t know your portfolio, your tax situation, or your risk tolerance. It computes a structural intrinsic value given your inputs.
What the paid letter adds is the analyst work on top — which companies we’d actually be comfortable owning, how we’re sizing each position, and the real trade log.